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Prediction for CME (2026-07-10T15:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-10T15:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47501/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the SW in STEREO A COR2, GOES CCOR-1, and SOHO LASCO C2/C3 after a downlink gap backfilled in. The source is AR 14485 and a C6.0 flare (S16W47) peaking at 2026-07-10T14:59Z. Also observed well in SDO AIA 171/193 as field line movement, pockets of dimming in the vicinity (not a central area), and a minor EUV wave. Arrival signature: Characterized by an increase in B_total from 4nT to 5nT, reaching periods of 9nT at 2026-07-13T15:51Z. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 412 km/s to 430 km/s, an increase in density, and a small increase in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-13T14:39Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-13T05:01Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-07-10 20:06
 - Time at C2: 2026-07-10 15:53
 - Radial speed: 779.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 44 deg
 - Eruption location: S02W12
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 639.70 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2026-07-13 05:01 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.15 hours)
Lead Time: 44.00 hour(s)
Difference: 9.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2026-07-11T18:39Z
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